Govt Announce Oil Fuel Price Increase Late May

Govt Announce Oil Fuel Price Increase End of May

Indonesian government will announce subsidized oil fuel price increase in next three weeks after finishing the evaluation for the amount of Direct Cash Transfer Program (BLT) for 19.1 milion poor household.

Sri Mulyani Finance Minister said there are three option for average subsidized oil fuel price increase namely 20%, 25% and 30%. but definite number still on counting.

The option to raise oil fuel will take after all BLT-related consideration had fix up, about IDR 2 trillion will be distribute monthly.

According to Sri Mulyani, if government decide to raise on 30%, then month on month inflation rate for the first month since the announcement would be 2,7% and the second month could be 0,4% and the following month could be 0,35%.

That inflation rate higher compare goods price hike that was happen in 2005 for the same period which is 1,91%, 0,34% and 0,21%.

Higher inflation rate caused by commodities price hike which is become an additional pressing factor.

Sri Mulyani also said there’s a possibility that the revise state budget could be revise again cause there are strong external pressure toward Indonesian economy.

The external pressure as an effect of global economic slowdown, world crude oil price jump up and the rise of food commodities price.

Though Finance Minister believe that economic growth on Q1 2008 will be above 6,3%, she also warn that high food commodities price in global market will have a potential to hit people purchasing power and it could make the growth for next three month would be suppress.

and if its happen in long period, because commodities and oil price will keep high this year, so the 2008 economic growth forecast will be 6%. We perceive that figure as moderat projection.

Sri Mulyani reveal that the impact of the slowdown will affect some others macroeconomic assumprion projection such as economic growth which slowdown to 6%, inflation rate will be 8,5%-9,5% and 3 month Central Bank Certificates (SBI) also on the same range.

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