State Budget 2009 will Adopt USD 140 per barrel oil price assumption

State Budget 2009 will Adopt USD 140 per barrel oil price assumption

Indonesian government now more realistic in facing global oil price increase and have plan to change indonesia crude price (ICP) average price in order to secure 2009 state budget.

In 2009 state budget draft, government will use ICP average price assumption at USD 140 per barrel.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said after we saw the tendency of present oil price, USD 120 per barrel ICP average price for state budget 2009 cannot work.

If still keep with USD 120 per barrel price assumption, energy subsidy for 2009 could increase to IDR 296 trillion.

Government also plan to prepare fiscal risk reserve to anticipate the oil price increase reach USD 150-160 per barrel.

Beside, ICP price assumption increase also bring the pressure to economic growth getting harder. But government will keep the growth on 6,2%.

The pressure to 2009 state budget also getting harder which caused by the volume increase of subsidied oil fuel consumption in 2009.

For subsidied oil fuel consumption assumption in 2009 state budget had allocate 42,8 million kilolitre.

Disparity or oil fuel selling price difference between domestic and international also will affect the consumption. at this moment industry had to pay oil fuel with international price and there’s a possibility that industry will buy subsidied oil fuel.

Anggito Abimanyu, Chief of fiscal policy agency Ministry of Finance said the government had prepare the scenario for appropriate ICP price.

Anggito see USD 120 per barrel ICP price not suit with recent situation and USD 140 per barrel more close to reality.

Bambang Soesatyo chief for fiscal and monetary of Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) had forecast 2008 state budget is not appropriate.

All macro assumption in 2008 state budget had miss the target and exceed the forecast limit.

The simple example is present oil price which had pass USD 140 per barrel, while 2008 state budget had decide USD 95 per barrel with additional reserve capital USD 110 per barrel, and IDR 8.25 trillion fiscal risk additional reserve capital of 2008 state budget had been complete absorp.


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